How to know when to overbet
The overbet is one of the far more typical moves in GTO poker and a lot of very good players struggle to know when to incorporate them. A single thing in certain individuals can not get their head around is understanding that the larger your overbet, the far more you can bluff, not much less.
If you make a 2/3rds pot bet on the flop you need to have to be worth betting 72% of the time and bluffing 28% of the time to avoid getting exploited. If you make a pot sized bet the ratio goes to 67% worth and 33% bluff. When you bet 200% the size of the pot, you now need to have 60% of your range to be value and 40% to be bluffs.
Overbets are employed when you have a polarised variety, where you either have a nutted hand or practically nothing. You ought to overbet with your strongest hands and with your very best bluffs. By very best bluffs we mean bluffs that have a huge draw or, on the river, a effective blocker. If you have a capped variety or middle strength hands, you must not overbet. We also overbet to get as significantly cash in the pot as possible, if we want to be capable to shove by the river with deep stacks we will need to have to overbet one particular of the streets in order to obtain that.
The street matters when overbetting
The street itself is a consideration. There are much more overbets on the river than the turn, and much more overbets on the turn than the flop. This is simply because you are far more polarised on the river than the turn, and more polarised on the turn than the flop.
Each and every action, whether or not it is check/bet/call removes some hands from yours and your opponent’s range, which means the hand values get far more static as the streets progress.
On the river the nuts will usually be the nuts, on the flop the nuts is generally just the nuts correct now. On the river an overbet is primarily based purely on hand strength for worth and blockers for bluffs. On the turn we will overbet the nutty hands and our strongest draws, since they turn into river worth bets far more often than weak draws.
The later the street the much better
The classic turn in position overbet comes soon after a really dry favourable flop for the preflop in position aggressor. When they make a little bet on the flop and the Villain verify/calls. In this spot the in position player nonetheless has all the nutted hands in their variety but the out of position player is much significantly less probably to have them. When the turn is a brick for Villain’s range and they verify, they now have a capped range. No verify/raise on the flop and no lead on the turn, plus your range advantage, makes this a very good spot to overbet as the bluffs will function considerably more typically.
The classic out of position overbet situation is when you defend a raise and get a favourable flop for your defending range, then the flop goes check check. Let’s say the flop is 9-8-6 rainbow, it goes check verify and the turn is a brick. This is a very good spot for an overbet, because the in position player would have likely bet such a dynamic flop. The out of position player, nevertheless, could have been setting up a flop check/raise so they nevertheless have nutted benefit. A great in position player will shield their variety by checking back big hands sometimes, but either way the range benefit has shifted. This is a excellent spot to overbet the turn out of position.
There are occasions to overbet the flop but we do not do it as considerably because our great draws have so considerably equity it would suck having to give them up to a reraise. We can frequently have 30-40% equity with the draws we would nevertheless have to bet/fold which is a lot to give up when a smaller bet or verify would make much more sense. We have significantly less equity with draws by the turn so that tends to make the turn a fantastic spot to overbet.
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